Is This the Time to Sell?
Crystal Balling the 2016 Spring Market…
Predicting the future is always difficult and this year’s spring market is no different. First, we have El Nino rains delaying the market and an unsteady stock market creating uncertainty. That said, following is our crystal ball breakdown:
- Traditionally, there is a strong correlation between the consumer confidence index and real estate sales activity. Currently, the index is near the mid range, about 104 with the 60’s being low and the last big high point around 145 just before the 2000 dot com peak. Result: No reason to see housing demand going down.
- The employment engine in the Bay Area is at an all-time high. We are fortunate to be in the epicenter of the world’s technology transformation with abundant high quality, highly paid jobs but not enough qualified people to fill them. Some rationalization on the horizon with mature product. Result: migration into our area and continued demand for good housing.
- Inventory continues to be scarce. All over the Bay area, and particularly in Marin, there is a scarcity of housing product, particularly quality housing product. Result: Qualified buyers but few available homes and some dramatically overpriced.
- Development potential on vacant land is almost nil In Marin as there is little land available for development. Accordingly, we see older neighborhoods gentrifying like the Lyford Cove area of Old Tiburon, for instance where fourteen older, less than 2000sf homes have been replaced in recent years by 3000+sf custom replacement homes. Or look at the Belvedere Lagoon. And, this is just the beginning. Result: Up to date, move-in product driven by remodels.
- Compounding the lack of land problem is the lengthy and costly entitlement process governmental jurisdictions have imposed in response to environmental, NIMBY politics and desires for open space. Result: Don’t expect lots of new product in the near future.
- Marin has been found! Believe it or not, until the 1980’s and 90’s, Marin was at best a television-touted peacock feather in the market’s consciousness, but it is known now as the best kept residential secret in the Bay Area with delightful neighborhoods, good public and private schools, natural beauty unobstructed by billboards, open space, and an interesting and eclectic housing stock making Marin a preferred residence of choice for families to call home. Result: Strong demand, good weather, nice place to live.
Based on these conditions, it appears this spring 2016 will see continued demand and stable with mild upward initial pressure on prices then perhaps more reasoned moderation buyers act more mindfully.
Getting the results you want is our goal. I’m David Kirchhoff at David Kirchhoff Fine Homes, txt me @ 415.531-2656 to set up a time to talk about your goals, wants and needs. Or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org.